Ngasekupheleni kuka-2022, umthamo wempahla kwimarike yothutho ngobuninzi uya kuphinda uphakame kwaye izinga lomthwalo liza kuyeka ukwehla.Nangona kunjalo, imeko yemarike kunyaka ozayo isagcwele ukungaqiniseki.Amaxabiso alindeleke ukuba ehle "phantse ukuya kuluhlu lweendleko eziguquguqukayo".Kubekho uloyiko ukusukela oko i-China yasusa izithintelo ekuqhambukeni kukaDisemba.Ingqesho kwiinkampani ezirhweba ngeefektri zehle kakhulu ngesithathu ekupheleni kukaDisemba.Kuya kuthatha malunga neenyanga ezi-3-6 ukuba imfuno yasekhaya neyangaphandle ibuyele kwisibini kwisithathu somgangatho wangaphambi kobhubhane.
Ukusukela kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2022, izinga lokuthuthwa kwempahla liye lehla ngalo lonke ixesha.Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nemfazwe yaseRussia-Ukraine ithintele amandla okuthenga aseYurophu nase-United States, kunye nokucotha kwe-inventory digestion, kwaye umthamo wempahla wehle kakhulu.Ukuthunyelwa kwe-Asia ukuya e-US kwehle ngeepesenti ze-21 ngoNovemba ukusuka kunyaka ongaphambili ukuya kwi-1.324,600 TEUs, ukusuka kwi-18 yeepesenti ngo-Oktobha, ngokutsho kweDescartes Datamyne, i-US yophando lwefemu.
Ukusukela ngoSeptemba, ukuhla kwemithamo yempahla kuye kwanda.Ukuthunyelwa kweekhonteyina ukusuka e-Asiya ukuya e-US kwehle kwinyanga yesine ethe ngqo ngoNovemba ukusuka kunyaka ongaphambili, kugxininisa imfuno ecothayo yase-US.I-China, eyayinelona zinga liphezulu ngokulayishwa komhlaba, yabona ukuhla kweepesenti ezingama-30, inyanga yesithathu ilandelelana yokwehla okungaphezulu kwe-10 yeepesenti. ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Nangona kunjalo, kuye kwakho ukungxama kwimakethi yothutho yamva nje.Umthamo wempahla weEvergreen Shipping kunye neYangming Shipping eUnited States ubuyele kwimeko epheleleyo.Ukongeza kwimpembelelo yokuthunyelwa ngaphambi koMnyhadala waseNtwasahlobo, ukutywinwa okuqhubekayo kwelizwe laseTshayina kukwangundoqo.
Imarike yehlabathi iqala ukwamkela ixesha elincinci lencopho yokuthunyelwa kwempahla, kodwa unyaka ozayo usezakuba ngunyaka ocela umngeni.Ngelixa iimpawu zokuphela kokwehla kwamaxabiso empahla ziye zavela, kunzima ukuqikelela ukuba i-rebound iya kude kangakanani.Kunyaka ozayo kuya kuchaphazela olona tshintsho lubalulekileyo kumazinga okuthunyelwa kwenqanawa, i-IMO imimiselo emibini emitsha yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni iya kuqala ukusebenza, kugxilwe kwihlabathi jikelele kumaza okuqhekeka kwenqanawa.
Abathwali bemithwalo emikhulu baye baqalisa ukusebenzisa izicwangciso ezahlukeneyo zokuhlangabezana nokuhla komthamo wempahla.Okokuqala, baye baqalisa ukulungelelanisa indlela yokusebenza yendlela yeFar East-Europe.Ezinye iinqwelomoya zikhethe ukudlula iSuez Canal ziphinde zibuyele eCape of Good Hope ze emva koko zisingise eYurophu.Utshintsho olunjalo lunokongeza iintsuku ezili-10 kwixesha lohambo phakathi kwe-Asiya neYurophu, ukonga kwiirhafu zaseSuez kunye nokwenza uhambo olucothayo luhambelane ngakumbi nokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.Okona kubaluleke kakhulu, inani leenqanawa ezifunekayo liya kwanda, ngokungathanga ngqo lihlambulule umthamo omtsha.
1. Imfuno iyakuhlala isezantsi ngo-2023: amaxabiso olwandle ayakuhlala ephantsi kwaye eguquguquka
"Iindleko zobunzima bokuphila zidla amandla okusebenzisa abathengi, okukhokelela ekufuneni okuncinci kwempahla yesikhongozeli esiphuma kumazwe angaphandle. Akukho mqondiso wesisombululo kwingxaki kwinqanaba lehlabathi, kwaye silindele ukuba umthamo wolwandle uyancipha."UPatrik Berglund waxela kwangaphambili, "Oko kwatshoyo, ukuba imeko yezoqoqosho iya isiba mandundu, inokuba mandundu."
Kuxelwe ukuba NYE inkampani yokuthumela inqanawa yathi kunzima ukuqikelela ukuphuhliswa kwemarike yokuthumela ngobuninzi kunyaka ozayo.Imakethi yeekhonteyina imile kwezi nyanga zimbalwa zidlulileyo emva kokuhla okuqatha kwamaxabiso othutho kunye nemfuno."Ukuxela kwangaphambili imeko yeshishini ngokubanzi kuye kwaba nzima ngakumbi xa kukho ukungaqiniseki okukhulayo," yatsho inkampani.
Wachaza inani lemiba yomngcipheko: "Umzekelo, ingxabano eqhubekayo yaseRashiya-Ukraine, impembelelo yemigaqo-nkqubo yokuvalelwa kwabantu, kunye nothethathethwano lwabasebenzi kumazibuko aseSpain naseMelika."Ngaphandle koko, kukho iinkalo ezintathu ezixhalabisa ngokukodwa.
Ukuhla okubukhali kumazinga eendawo: Amazinga e-SCFI aphakamileyo ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari kulo nyaka, kwaye emva kokuhla ngokukhawuleza, ukuhla kwe-78% ukususela ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari.Indlela ye-Shanghai-Northern Europe iphantsi kweepesenti ze-86, kwaye indlela ye-Shanghai-Spanish-American Trans-Pacific iphantsi kweepesenti ze-82 kwi-1,423 yeedola nge-FEU nganye, i-19 yeepesenti ingaphantsi kunomndilili we-2010-2019.
Izinto zinokuba mbi ngakumbi kuNYE kunye nabanye abathwali.OMNYE ulindele ukuba iindleko zokusebenza zihlale zinyuka kwaye amaxabiso omthwalo aqhubeke ehla njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyukela kumanani amabini.
Phambi kwemivuzo, ngaba ukuhla okulindelekileyo ukusuka kwi-Q3 ukuya kwi-Q4 kuya kuqhubeka ngesantya esifanayo ngo-2023?"Uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kulindeleke," uMnu ONE waphendula.Inkampani icuthe uqikelelo lwengeniso yayo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka wayo wemali kwaye yathi inzuzo yokusebenza ingaphezulu kwesiqingatha xa kuthelekiswa nesiqingatha sokuqala nesesibini sonyaka ophelileyo.
2. Amaxabiso eemvumelwano zexesha elide aphantsi koxinzelelo: amaxabiso okuthutha aya kuqhubeka eguquguquka kwizinga eliphantsi.
Ukongeza, ngokuhla kwamaxabiso, iinkampani zeenqanawa zithi iikontraki zangaphambili zexesha elide ziphinda zixoxiswane ukuze zibe namaxabiso aphantsi.Xa ebuzwa ukuba ngaba abathengi bayo bacele ukuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso ekhontrakthi, u-ONE wathi: "Xa isivumelwano sangoku siza kuphelelwa lixesha, OMNYE uya kuqalisa ukuxoxa ngohlaziyo kunye nabathengi."
Umhlalutyi we-Kepler Cheuvreux u-Anders R.Karlsen uthe: "Imbonakalo yonyaka ozayo incinci, amaxabiso ekhontrakthi nawo aya kuqalisa uthetha-thethwano kwinqanaba eliphantsi kwaye imivuzo yabathwali iya kuba yinto eqhelekileyo."I-Alphaliner ngaphambili yayibalwe ukuba ingeniso yeenkampani zokuthutha kulindeleke ukuba yehle phakathi kwe-30% kunye ne-70%, ngokusekwe kwidatha yoqikelelo lwangaphambili oluxelwe ziinkampani zokuthumela.
Ukwehla kwemfuno yabathengi kuthetha ukuba abathwali ngoku "bakhuphisana ngevolumu," ngokutsho kwe-CEO yeXeneta.UJørgen Lian, umhlalutyi ophezulu kwiiMarike ze-DNB, uqikelela ukuba umgca osezantsi kwimarike yeekhonteyina uya kuvavanywa ngo-2023.
Njengoko uJames Hookham, umongameli weBhunga leGlobal abathumeli beenqanawa, echaza kuphononongo lwakhe lwekota lwemarike yokuthumela iikhonteyina, ekhutshwe kule veki: “Omnye wemibuzo emikhulu eya ngo-2023 yeyokuba bangakanani abathumeli babo abaya kuzibophelela ekuphindeni baxoxisane ngeekhontrakthi. kwaye ungakanani umthamo oza kubekelwa bucala kwimarike yendawo. Imarike yendawo kulindeleke ukuba yehle ngaphantsi kwamanqanaba obhubhane kwiiveki ezizayo. "
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-14-2023