Uqoqosho lwehlabathi 2023

Ilizwe kufuneka liphephe ukwahlulwa

Ngoku lixesha elinzima kakhulu kuqoqosho lwehlabathi ngembono elindelekileyo ukuba ibe mnyama ngo-2023.

Imikhosi emithathu enamandla ibambe uqoqosho lwehlabathi: Ukungqubana phakathi kweRussia neUkraine, isidingo sokuqinisekisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kunye ne-Prociest yoxinzelelo, kunye nokuhamba koqoqosho lwexabiso.

Ngexesha leentlanganiso zonyaka zemali zaye zazamazwe ngemali ngo-Oktobha, siyile ukukhula kwehlabathi ukuya kuhamba kancinci ukusuka kwiipesenti ezi-6.0 kunyaka ophelileyo ukuya kwiipesenti ezi-3.2 kulo nyaka. Kwaye, malunga nowe-2023, siye sathoba i-propelocal yethu i-2,7 pesenti - 0.2 Iipesenti zepesenti ezisezantsi kunezo ziqikelelwe kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ngaphambili ngoJulayi.

Silindele ukuba i-jikelele ye-jikelele ibe isekwe ngokubanzi, kunye ne-Accound Accound kwisinye kwisithathu soqoqosho lwehlabathi kulo nyaka okanye ngokulandelayo. Ooqoqosho luntathu luthile: I-United States, iChina, kunye nendawo ye-Euro, iya kuqhubeka ivenkile.

Kukho enye kwithuba eline lokukhula kwehlabathi kunyaka olandelayo unokuwa ngaphantsi kwe-2 pesenti - iphantsi kwembali. Ngamafutshane, eyona nto imbi kakhulu iseza kwaye, uqoqosho oluphambili, njengeJamani, kulindeleke ukuba kungene phi kwakhona kunyaka olandelayo.

Makhe siqwalasele uqoqosho olukhulu kakhulu emhlabeni:

E-United States, ukuqinisa iimeko zemali kunye nezemali kuthetha ukukhula kunokuba malunga neepesenti ezi-123.

E China, sihlise uqikelelo lokukhula kulo nyaka lulandelayo ukuya kwi-4.4 pesenti ngenxa yecandelo lepropathi, kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka yehlabathi.

Kwi-Eurozone, imbakisi yamandla ebangelwa yi-Russia-Ukraine Ingqungquthela ithatha irhafu enzima, ukunciphisa ukuqalisa kwethu ukuqalisa kwe-2023 ukuya kwi-0.5 pesenti.

Phantse kuyo yonke indawo, amaxabiso akhula ngokukhawuleza, ngakumbi ezona zokutya namandla, zibangela ubunzima obukhulu kumakhaya abuthathaka.

Ngaphandle kokucotha, uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lungqina lubanzi kwaye luzingisa ngakumbi kunokuba bekucingelwa. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi ngoku kulindeleke ukuba kufike kwi-9.5 pesenti nge-2022 ngaphambi kokhombisa ukuya kwi-4,1 pesenti nge-2024. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuninzi kakhulu kukutya namandla.

I-Outlook inokuba mandundu ngakumbi kwaye umgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo uye waba ngumceli mngeni. Nantsi imingcipheko emine ephambili:

Umngcipheko wemali yemali, yemali, okanye umgaqo-nkqubo wezezimali uvukile kakhulu ngexesha lokungaqiniseki okuphezulu.

Isiphithiphithi kwiimarike zezemali kunokubangela iimeko zemali zehlabathi ukonakalisa, kunye nedola yaseMelika ukomeleza ngakumbi.

Ukunyuka kwamandla exabiso kunokuba, kwakhona, kungqinisise ngakumbi, ngakumbi ukuba iimarike zabasebenzi zihlala ziqinile.

Okokugqibela, ubugqwetha eUkraine busasebenza. Ukunyuka okungaphezulu kuya kuyandisa amandla kunye nengxaki yokhuseleko lokutya.

Ukonyuka kweengcinezelo zamaxabiso kuhlala kusesoyikiso kwangoko kunye nokuchuma okuthe kratya ngokuncwina kwengeniso yokwenyani kunye nokuthoba uzinzo lwe-macroeconomic. Iibhanki eziphambili ngoku zijolise ekubuyiseleni uzinzo lwamaxabiso, kwaye isantya sokuqinisa sikhawulezise kakhulu.

Apho kukho imfuneko, umgaqo-nkqubo wezezimali kufuneka uqinisekise ukuba iimarike zihlala zizinzile. Nangona kunjalo, iibhanki eziphambili zehlabathi kufuneka zigcine isandla esizinzileyo, umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ugxile ngokuqinileyo ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso.

Amandla edola yase-US nawo ngumceli mngeni omkhulu. Idola ngoku inamandla kakhulu ukusukela kwiminyaka yokuqala ye-2000. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, olu nyukayo luvela kakhulu ngamandla asisiseko njengokuqiniswa komgaqo-nkqubo wemali e-US nakwintlekele yamandla.

Impendulo efanelekileyo kukulawula umgaqo-nkqubo wemali ukuze ugcine uzinzo lwamaxabiso, ngelixa uvumela ukutshintshiselana uhlengahlengiso, ulondoloze ugcino lwentengo yelinye ilizwe xa iimeko zemali zisiba mandundu.

Njengoko uqoqosho lwehlabathi luye lwaya kubalwa amanzi eqhwithi, ngoku lixesha lokuba abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo ovelayo abenzi bentengiso bakwazi ukwehlisa imithambo.

Amandla okulawula i-Europe's Outlook

Imbonakalo yonyaka olandelayo ibukeka intle. Sibona i-Eurozone ye-Eurozone ye-GDPP ye-GDP ye-01 pesenti ngo-2023, ephantsi imvumelwano kancinane.

Nangona kunjalo, ukuwa ngempumelelo kwimfuno yamandla - incediswa yimozulu efudumeleyo yexesha elifudumeleyo - amanqanaba okugcina igesi kufutshane ne-100 yeepesenti amandla ancipha umngcipheko wokunikwa kwamandla enzima ebusika.

Ngaphakathi konyaka, imeko kufuneka iphucule njengokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuvumela ukufumana umvuzo kwingeniso yokwenyani kunye nokuchacha kwicandelo lezomveliso. Kodwa phantse akukho rhabantsi ye-Russian iqukuqela eYurophu kunyaka olandelayo, ilizwekazi liya kufuneka litshintshe lonke ixesha lamandla aphucukileyo.

Ke ibali le-2023 le-macro liza kunconywa ngamandla. Imbonakalo ephuculweyo ye-Nuleary kunye ne-hydroelelelelelelelectric edityanisiweyo kunye nenqanaba lokugcina amandla kunye nokuthathwa kwamandla kude negesi kuthetha ukucima igesi yaseRussia ngaphandle kokubandezeleka.

Silindele ukunyuka kwexabiso ukuba libe sezantsi ngo-2023, nangona ixesha elininzi lamaxabiso aphezulu kulo nyaka libeka umngcipheko omkhulu wokunyuka okuphezulu.

Kwaye kunye nesiphelo esisonke esiphelweni segesi yaseRussia, imizamo yaseYurophu ekubuyiseleni i-inventries ingatyhala amaxabiso egesi ukuya kwi-2023.

Umfanekiso wokunyuka kwexabiso lentengo ibonakala ingenamncinci kuneso siqwengana sentloko, kwaye silindele ukuba siphinde siphinde siphinde siphinde sibuyele kwi-2023, i-3.7 pesenti. Imbonakalo eqinileyo yokungabinamsebenzi evela kwiimpahla kunye ne-statier enamandla amaninzi kwinkonzo yenkonzo iyakuyifula indlela yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Ixabiso lezinto ezingezizo ezamandla liphezulu liphezulu ngoku, ngenxa yokutshintsha kwemfuno, imiba yokubonelela ngokuzithandela kunye nokudlula kweendleko zamandla.

Kodwa ukwehla kwamaxabiso entengiso yehlabathi, i-chansence the chans, kunye namanqanaba aphezulu e-Onventries-to-orveries-orgrio iphakamisa i-jikari isondele.

Ngeenkonzo ezimele isibini kwisithathu sezinto ezimbi, kwaye ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezingama-40 zentlawulelo, kulapho ibala ledabi lokwenyani lokunyuka kwamaxabiso liya kuba ngo-2023.