UQoqosho lweHlabathi 2023

Umhlaba kufuneka uphephe ukuqhekeka

Ngoku lixesha elinzima kakhulu kuqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nembonakalo ekulindeleke ukuba ibe mnyama ngo-2023.

Amandla amathathu anamandla abambe uqoqosho lwehlabathi: ungquzulwano phakathi kweRussia neUkraine, imfuneko yokuqinisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali phakathi kweendleko zokuphila kunye noxinzelelo oluqhubekayo kunye nokwandisa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kunye nokuhla koqoqosho lwaseTshayina.

Ngexesha leentlanganiso zonyaka zeNgxowa-mali yezeMali yeHlabathi ngo-Okthobha, siqikelele ukuba ukukhula kwehlabathi kuza kucotha ukusuka kwi-6.0 ekhulwini kunyaka ophelileyo ukuya kwi-3.2 yeepesenti kulo nyaka.Kwaye, ngo-2023, sehlise uqikelelo lwethu ukuya kwi-2.7 yeepesenti - ipesenti ye-0.2 yamanqaku angaphantsi kunokuba bekuqikelelwe kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ngaphambili ngoJulayi.

Silindele ukucotha kwehlabathi ukuba kusekelwe ngokubanzi, kwaye amazwe athatha isinye kwisithathu soqoqosho lwehlabathi olungena kulo nyaka okanye ozayo.Awona mazwe mathathu awona qoqosho mkhulu: iUnited States, iTshayina nommandla weyuro, aya kuqhubeka edodobala.

Kukho ithuba elinye kwamane lokuba ukukhula kwehlabathi kunyaka ozayo kunokuwela ngaphantsi kweepesenti ezi-2 - imbali ephantsi.Ngokufutshane, eyona nto imbi kakhulu iseza kwaye, uqoqosho olukhulu, olufana neJamani, kulindeleke ukuba lungene kuqoqosho kunyaka ozayo.

Makhe sijonge kwezona qoqosho zikhulu zehlabathi:

EUnited States, ukuqinisa iimeko zemali nezemali kuthetha ukuba ukukhula kunokuba malunga nepesenti enye ngo-2023.

E-China, siluhlisele uqikelelo lohlumo lonyaka ozayo lwaya kutsho kwi-4.4 ekhulwini ngenxa yokudodobala kwecandelo leepropathi, kunye nemfuno ebuthathaka yehlabathi.

Kwi-eurozone, ingxaki yamandla ebangelwa yingxabano yaseRashiya-Ukraine ithatha ubunzima obunzima, inciphisa ukukhula kwethu kwi-2023 ukuya kwi-0.5 ekhulwini.

Phantse kuyo yonke indawo, amaxabiso anyuka ngokukhawuleza, ngakumbi lawo okutya namandla, abangela ubunzima obukhulu kumakhaya asengozini.

Ngaphandle kokucotha, uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lubonakala lubanzi kwaye luyazingisa ngakumbi kunokuba bekulindelwe.Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ehlabathi ngoku kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke kwi-9.5 yeepesenti ngo-2022 ngaphambi kokuba kwehle ukuya kwi-4.1 ekhulwini ngo-2024.

Imbonakalo inokuba mbi ngakumbi kwaye urhwebo lomgaqo-nkqubo lube ngumngeni omkhulu.Nantsi imingcipheko emine engundoqo:

Umngcipheko wokusetyenziswa kakubi komgaqo-nkqubo wemali, wemali, okanye wezezimali unyuke kakhulu ngexesha lokungaqiniseki okuphezulu.

Izidubedube kwiimalike zezemali zinokubangela ukuba iimeko zezimali zehlabathi zibe mandundu, kunye nedola yaseMelika ukomelela ngakumbi.

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kusenokubonakala kuzingisa ngakumbi, ngakumbi ukuba iimarike zabasebenzi zihlala zixinene kakhulu.

Ekugqibeleni, imfazwe yaseUkraine isagquba.Ukunyuka okungaphaya kuya kwandisa amandla kunye nengxaki yokhuseleko lokutya.

Ukunyuka koxinzelelo lwamaxabiso kuhlala kusesona sisongelo sikhawulezileyo kwimpumelelo yangoku neyexesha elizayo ngokucudisa ingeniso yokwenyani kunye nokujongela phantsi uzinzo kuqoqosho olukhulu.Iibhanki eziphambili ngoku zijolise ekubuyiseleni ukuzinza kwexabiso, kwaye isantya sokuqina siye sakhula ngokukhawuleza.

Apho kuyimfuneko, umgaqo-nkqubo wezezimali kufuneka uqinisekise ukuba iimarike zihlala zizinzile.Nangona kunjalo, iibhanki ezingundoqo kwihlabathi jikelele kufuneka zigcine isandla esizinzileyo, kunye nomgaqo-mali ogxile ekunciphiseni ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Amandla edola yaseMelika nawo ngumceli mngeni omkhulu.Idola ngoku yomelele ukusukela kwiminyaka yoo-2000.Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, oku kunyuka kubonakala kuqhutywa ngamandla asisiseko afana nokuqiniswa komgaqo-nkqubo wezemali e-US kunye nengxaki yamandla.

Impendulo efanelekileyo kukulungelelanisa umgaqo-nkqubo wemali ukugcina uzinzo lwamaxabiso, ngelixa uvumela amazinga otshintshiselwano ukuba alungelelanise, ukulondoloza oovimba botshintshiselwano lwangaphandle oluxabisekileyo xa iimeko zemali zisiba mandundu ngokwenene.

Njengoko uqoqosho lwehlabathi lusingise kumanzi anezaqhwithi, ngoku lixesha lokuba abaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo yemarike abasakhulayo baphelise iihatshi.

Amandla okulawula imbonakalo yeYurophu

Imbonakalo yonyaka ozayo ikhangeleka imfiliba.Sibona i-GDP ye-eurozone yenza ikhontrakthi ye-0.1 yeepesenti ngo-2023, engaphantsi kancinane kwimvumelwano.

Nangona kunjalo, ukuwa okuyimpumelelo kwemfuno yamandla - ngokuncediswa yimozulu eshushu ngexesha lonyaka - kunye namanqanaba okugcina igesi akufutshane ne-100 yepesenti umthamo kunciphisa umngcipheko wokulinganiswa kwamandla obunzima ngeli xesha lobusika.

Phakathi enyakeni, imeko kufuneka iphucuke njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuhla kuvumela inzuzo kwingeniso yokwenyani kunye nokuchacha kwicandelo lezoshishino.Kodwa phantse kungekho rhasi yombhobho waseRashiya oqukuqela ukuya eYurophu kulo nyaka uzayo, ilizwekazi liya kufuna ukuba litshintshe zonke izixhobo zamandla ezilahlekileyo.

Ke ibali le-macro lika-2023 liya kumiselwa kakhulu ngamandla.Imbonakalo ephuculweyo yemveliso yenyukliya kunye nombane oqhutywa ngamanzi kudityaniswe neqondo elisisigxina lokonga amandla kunye nokutshintshwa kwamafutha endaweni yerhasi kuthetha ukuba iYurophu inokutshintsha kwirhasi yaseRussia ngaphandle kokubandezeleka okukhulu kwezoqoqosho.

Silindele ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kube ngaphantsi kwi-2023, nangona ixesha elongezelelweyo lamaxabiso aphezulu kulo nyaka libeka umngcipheko omkhulu wokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu.

Kwaye ngesiphelo esikufutshane sokungeniswa kwerhasi yaseRussia, iinzame zaseYurophu zokuzalisa uluhlu lwempahla zinokunyusa amaxabiso egesi ngo-2023.

Umfanekiso we-inflation engundoqo ubukeka ungaphantsi kwe-benign kune-headline figure, kwaye silindele ukuba iphakame kwakhona kwi-2023, i-avareji ye-3.7 yeepesenti.Indlela eyomeleleyo yokwehla kwamandla emali evela kwimpahla kunye nokuncamathelisa okuguquguqukayo kumaxabiso eenkonzo kuya kubumba indlela yokuziphatha kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezingezizo amandla kuphezulu ngoku, ngenxa yokutshintsha kwemfuno, imiba eqhubekayo yokubonelela kunye nokudlula kwiindleko zamandla.

Kodwa ukuhla kwamaxabiso eemveliso zehlabathi, ukunciphisa uxinzelelo lokubonelela, kunye namanqanaba aphezulu oluhlu lweempahla-kuya-odolo zibonisa ukuba inguqu isemnyango.

Ngeenkonzo ezimele isibini esithathwini sondoqo, kwaye ngaphezulu kweepesenti ezingama-40 zokunyuka kwamaxabiso lilonke, kulapho elona qonga lokulwa lokunyuka kwamaxabiso liya kuba ngo-2023.